Bitcoin bears risk getting trapped if BTC price remains above $50K — Here’s why


Bitcoin’s (BTC) 32% weekly rally turned bears’ worst nightmare as Friday’s $860-million choices expiry is approaching. After breaking the $54,000 level, over 99% of the bearish bets utilizing put (promote) choices are more likely to turn into nugatory.

Bears are in a harmful place, significantly as Bloomberg’s Crypto Outlook identified that Bitcoin’s $50,000 resistance was about to flip help. Senior commodity strategist Mike McGlone cited such components as increasing adoption together with a diminishing supply on exchanges.

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Bloomberg additionally famous that conventional finance traders’ considerations surged after the safety in opposition to the opportunity of a United States authorities default rose to its highest degree in six years. Furthermore, one-year credit-default swaps, or the fee to insure in opposition to a cost delay, have risen to 27 foundation factors from 4 foundation factors since mid-September.

Bitcoin value at Bitstamp in USD. Supply: TradingView

One other essential metric that actually fueled this week’s bull run was Bitcoin’s hash price, the estimated processing energy backing the community miners. The capability took a giant blow in Might, as China vetoed coal-based power use for mining cryptocurrencies. Then, in early June, the nation determined to ban cryptocurrency mining for good, which quickly took many miners offline, impacting the hash price.

Bitcoin 7-day common hash price in terahashes per second. Supply:

This week, the bulls picked up on these favorable circumstances and pushed Bitcoin to its highest degree since Might 12 at $55,000. As for the $860-million choices expiry on Friday, Oct. 8, bears want a miracle to push the value beneath $50,000 to keep away from vital losses.

Bitcoin choices combination open curiosity for Oct. 8. Supply: Bybt

Because the above knowledge exhibits, bears positioned $400 million in bets for Friday’s expiry, however it seems that they had been caught without warning as 99% of the put (promote) choices are more likely to turn into nugatory.

In different phrases, if Bitcoin stays above $54,000 on Friday, solely $2.7 million value of neutral-to-bearish put choices shall be activated on the expiry. A proper to promote (put choice) Bitcoin at $50,000 turns into nugatory if BTC trades above that value at 8:00 am UTC on Friday.

Open curiosity is pretty balanced between bulls and bears

The 1.16 call-to-put ratio represents the slight distinction between the $465 million value of name (purchase) choices versus the $400 million in put (promote) choices. Though favoring bulls, this broader view wants a extra detailed evaluation as a result of some bets are implausible contemplating the present value.

Under are the 4 likeliest eventualities for Friday’s expiry. The imbalance favoring both aspect represents the theoretical revenue. In different phrases, relying on the expiry value, the amount of calls (purchase) and places (promote) contracts turning into lively varies:

  • Between $48,000 and $50,000: 3,515 calls vs.1,765 places. The online result’s $85 million favoring the decision (bull) devices.
  • Between $50,000 and $54,000: 6,270 calls vs. 735 places. The online result’s $290 million favoring the decision (bull) devices.
  • Between $54,000 and $56,000: 6,930 calls vs. 50 places. The online result’s $370 million favoring the decision (bull) devices.
  • Above $56,000: 7,600 calls vs. 0 places. The online result’s a whole dominance with bulls profiting $425 million.

This uncooked estimate considers name choices being solely utilized in bullish bets and put choices in neutral-to-bearish trades. Nonetheless, traders might need used a extra advanced technique that usually includes totally different expiry dates.

Bears are wrecked a method or one other

To sum up, the bulls have absolute management of Friday’s expiry and sufficient incentives to maintain the value above $54,000. However, bears want a ten% damaging transfer beneath $50,000 to keep away from the $370-million loss.

Nonetheless, one should think about that in bull runs, just like the one Bitcoin is in proper now, the quantity of effort a vendor must put in to liquidate longs is immense and normally ineffective. Put merely, if no surprises come earlier than Oct. 8, Bitcoin ought to proceed its rally to increased costs.

The views and opinions expressed listed below are solely these of the author and don’t essentially replicate the views of Cointelegraph. Each funding and buying and selling transfer includes threat. It’s best to conduct your personal analysis when making a choice.